Angry in the Great White North

a heat-seeking missile in the Conservative arsenal

From the Globe and Mail:

A maverick MP will not be returning to the Liberal caucus, an aide to the Prime Minister said Friday.

“He's not even entertaining the thought of welcoming Carolyn Parrish back to the caucus,” Marc Roy said.

The Globe and Mail repeats the story that Parrish was originally tossed for her anti-American comments instead of her criticism of the Prime Minister.

Look at it from the point of view of Carolyn Parrish.

Carolyn Parrish rejoins Liberal Party: Pros for Carolyn Parrish

• member of a proper party means access to staff and research, as well as time in Question Period


• full power of party behind her in election campaign


• in the next election, she is running as a Liberal instead of against a Liberal


• possibility (even if remote) of a cabinet post

Carolyn Parrish rejoins Liberal Party: Cons for Carolyn Parrish

• pressure to keep comments under control (with subsequent loss of media attention)


• pressure to vote with party

So from the point of view of Carolyn Parrish, remaining an independent is not a good thing. Even the two reasons not to rejoin the caucus, keeping her thoughts to herself and voting with the party don't really matter, because she'd probably continue to speak her mind, and even as an independent she votes Liberal.

Now look at it from the point of view of the Liberal Party.

Carolyn Parrish rejoins Liberal Party: Pros for the Liberal Party

• one more MP in a minority parliament


• more control over the rogue MP (who even as an independent is hurting the Liberals with her comments)


• as a popular MP, she would be a tough opponent in a campaign

Carolyn Parrish rejoins Liberal Party: Cons for the Liberal Party

• her outbursts hurt the party


• possibility that Paul Martin looks weak


• she is a divisive presence in caucus

For the Liberal Party, it's a bit of a tossup, especially since she votes Liberal even as an independent. This suggests that, overall, Carolyn Parrish needs the Liberal Party more than the Liberal Party needs Carolyn Parrish. Seen in those terms, it would have been an easy decision to keep her out of the party as a result of this week's comments.

Will Carolyn Parrish change? Doubt it. My analysis, assuming it makes sense, is humbling for Parrish, and I doubt something like that would register with her.