Angry in the Great White North

a heat-seeking missile in the Conservative arsenal

Polls are showing the pendulum swinging back to the Liberals:

In a Nov. 4 poll, the governing party's support was estimated at 28 per cent -- a 10-point plunge from one released Oct. 19.

However, in a new poll conducted over the weekend by The Strategic Counsel for CTV and The Globe and Mail, the Liberals are back up to 35 per cent support.

Here are the new numbers, with the percentage-point change from the Nov. 4 poll in brackets:

* Liberals: 35 per cent (+7)
* Conservatives: 28 per cent (-3)
* NDP: 16 per cent (-4)
* Bloc Quebecois 13 per cent (no change)
* Green Party: 8 per cent (+1)

Regionally, the poll found the Liberals taking a solid lead over the Opposition in Ontario, 44 to 31 per cent.

What do we make of this?

Well, first of all, we don't have the poll questions to compare with the November 4 poll. We all know by now how a carefully sequenced set of questions can nudge a polling subject in one direction or the other. Well also don't know how the "no opinion" respondents were divvied up, or if they were ignored.

But let's take the numbers at face value for now.

The article points out that Quebec remains solidly Bloc, the West remains solidly Conservative, and the battleground seems to be Ontario. The NDP seemed to bleed off support for the Liberals, suggesting that those disgusted with the Liberals went to park their vote there when the Gomery Report was fresh in their minds, and have now returned, probably holding their noses.

But will they actually cast a vote for the Liberals on election day? Or will they stay home out of protest? Or go back to Jack Layton?

The Conservative drop is a bit worrisome, but then without details about the polling technique, I'm not sure that 3 points is all that significant. Two honest but differently organized polls would probably show two or three points fluctuation that in any other situation would be shrugged off.

Indeed, at the bottom of the article, we learn that the margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points.

With everything balanced on the knife's edge, though, every point seems to matter.

CTV offers the classic "hidden agenda" argument:

The sudden possibility Harper's Conservatives might finally be mustering enough support to form government "gave a significant number of voters -- especially in Ontario -- pause, and an occasion to reassess their support."

With a electorate so volatile and so evenly split, a badly run gaff-ridden campaign is more likely decide the outcome.

The way I see it, a portion of the support for the Conservatives is nervous. Nerves can be soothed. But a larger of the portion of support for the Liberals is brittle. One wrong move and that support will shatter, and won't come back in time for election day.

Or so says my Magic 8-Ball.