Angry in the Great White North

A major international issue quickly escalating, and the United States will be looking for diplomatic support, including from Stephen Harper and the new Conservative government:

The United States and other permanent members of the U.N. Security Council agreed Tuesday that Iran should be hauled before that powerful body over its disputed nuclear program.

China and Russia, longtime allies and trading partners of Iran, signed on to a statement that calls on the U.N. nuclear watchdog to transfer the Iran dossier to the Security Council, which could impose sanctions or take other harsh action.

The timeline is for the Security Council to take up the issue in March.

Iran threatened to become belligerent if the Security Council becomes involved:

Iran threatened Friday to end all cooperation with the U.N. nuclear watchdog if the agency refers it to the U.N. Security Council for possible sanctions over its controversial nuclear program.

Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki said Europeans will lose opportunities they currently have in dealing with Iran and will force Tehran to block snap inspections of its nuclear facilities, state-run television reported.

Even Iran's nominal allies are putting themselves at a discreet distance:

Oil ministers of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries on Monday rejected Iranian proposals to cut the cartel’s oil production, opting instead to sustain current production levels amid continuing uncertainty surrounding Tehran’s nuclear programme.

However, diplomatic wrangling over Iran’s nuclear ambitions is likely to remain the biggest factor overhanging the oil market this week, after European diplomats on Monday dismissed Tehran’s latest attempt to avoid a referral to the United Nations Security Council over its nuclear programme.

Iran’s proposal 10 days ago for Opec to reduce production by 1m barrels a day - or nearly 4 per cent - pushed oil prices close to $70 a barrel.

Some diplomats and analysts had interpreted Tehran’s call for a cut in production as a political message, aimed at warning the west that Iran would be willing to use oil production as a weapon in the battle over its nuclear programme.

Without OPEC's support, though, Iran won't be able to do much with the oil threat. And that means going for broke.

Iran seems committed to a path leading to nuclear armament. Iran won't be the first with the "Islamic Bomb". Pakistan won that race. But Pakistan's nuclear weapons are a deterrent against Indian nuclear aggression. For the Iranian leadership, the only good bomb is an exploded bomb -- exploded over Israel.

Iran has already restarted the enrichment process. In Israel, Ariel Sharon's stroke means Israel is temporarily leaderless, so Iranian leaders might see this as a window in which to complete development of nuclear weapons without provoking striking an Israeli response.

They might be right.

If they are, and Israel is slow to react, the United States might be forced to intervene. And that's where Canada comes in. The Bush administration was mightily unimpressed by Jean Chretien's deferral of Canadian foreign policy to the United Nations (read "France"). Paul Martin made things worse by indicating throughout his leadership campaign that he would heal rifts with the US, then morphing into a kneejerk anti-American when realized he could score short term support in the polls.

Stephen Harper has campaigned on a similar promise to improves relations with the US. Depending on how events evolve in the next weeks and months, Harper might be forced to call on his inexperienced cabinet to fashion a response to a new phase of the War on Terror.