Angry in the Great White North

Jim Coutts is a well known name in Canadian politics. He has a reputation for being a brilliant strategist, if a bit of a cut-throat. He is supporting Gerard Kennedy:

Jim Coutts, Former Appointments Secretary to Prime Minister Pearson and Principal Secretary to Prime Minister Trudeau is running as a delegate in support of Gerard Kennedy in the riding of Trinity-Spadina. This is an obviously strong counter to those who have tagged Kennedy as absent of the experience and intellectual heft needed to handle the job of Prime Minister.

But if that's the case, why did Coutts donate $4,400 to the Rae campaign, and only $1,000 to Kennedy? By all accounts, Coutts is tighter with Rae than with Kennedy. Coutts is a buddy of John Rae, Bob's brother and a major Liberal power broker. Coutts is a buddy of Eddie Goldenberg, another major Liberal strategist, a former principal secretary to Jean Chretien, and a close personal friend of Bob Rae.

So why is Coutts handing his money over to Bob Rae, but supporting Kennedy?

The explanation is obvious. With Coutts' brackground, it is clear he ought to be a Rae man. WIth his donation, it is also clear he wants Rae to win. But he is "helping" Kennedy so that he can be there to deliver the talk.

What is the talk? It is the sombre discussion that happens when Kennedy's leadership bid loses momentum at the convention. What does Kennedy do? Coutt's lays out a plan:

Look, we know we can't win this. But we need to stop Michael Ignatieff. He'll turn the party into Tory-lite. Stephane Dion has too much baggage from serving both Jean Chretien and Paul Martin -- he's a step backward, not forward. Bob Rae is the only serious candidate that comes from outside of the party establishment. If we move our delegates into his camp, he can beat Ignatieff. And he can help the party by pulling over NDP votes. And let's be honest, you can't go back. The provincial riding you left to make this run for the federal leadership was taken by the NDP in the by-election, so you know as well as I do that it'll be a while before the Ontario Liberals return your calls. But if you help Rae win this, there will be a place for you. You'll be a hero to every Liberal scared of what Ignatieff will do to our party. So let's do what's right and throw our support behind Bob Rae.

And so ends the talk.

Why is Kennedy the target? According to the latest projections, Ignatieff has 1626 delegates, Rae has 879, and Kennedy has 932. Clearly Rae and Kennedy together are a threat.

So Coutts succeeds in his mission and delivers Kennedy's delegates to his boss, Bob Rae. Gerard Kennedy then hopes for some sort of consideration. Of course, since neither Bob Rae nor Gerard Kennedy are federal MPs, there will have to be two by-elections in safe Liberal ridings to get them into the House of Commons where the real prizes are. That means two Liberal MPs with nice cushy seats will have to step aside for the new guys, which will be tricky, since an MP who is a supporter of Ignatieff or Dion is hardly likely to want to help either of these two outsiders, even if one of them is the new leader Bob Rae. And step aside for the loser, Kennedy? Not likely. That means Kennedy will have to wait a while. Chances are there'll be a general election before he has a chance to fight in a by-election. Now he faces a riding nomination fight, and assuming he survives that, the election campaign itself.

But assuming it plays out this way, that's Kennedy's problem. Rae has won the leadership. Kennedy might think of calling Coutts for some help. If he can't get Coutts on his cell phone, he might think of trying Bob Rae's office.

So why isn't Kennedy trying to get Rae's votes with a similar scheme? Somehow I don't think Kennedy has the sort of power-players on his team that come up with these kinds of plans, people like Jim Coutts, John Rae, and Eddie Goldenberg. This is politics for the big boys.

Which is really ironic, when you think about it. The blog I quoted concerning Coutts supporting Kennedy made a point that this helps counter the argument that Kennedy lacks the "experience and intellectual heft" for the job of Liberal leader and prime minister. If Kennedy is really being played this way, then it's clear that this is exactly where Kennedy is coming up short.

Just my fevered imagination? Probably. But consider this. The $4,400 donation to Rae was dated June 26. The $1,000 went to Kennedy on July 7, 11 days later. A sudden change in heart? Or the time it took to hatch the plan and send Coutts on his mission?

Bonus rumour: I keep hearing that Jim Coutts has one more connection to Bob Rae -- he is dating Jennifer Rae, Bob Rae's sister. I don't want to say that this proves Coutts' loyalties are with Rae and not with Kennedy, but you have to wonder just how uncomfortable it would be if Coutts was really backing Kennedy.