When Ipsos-Reid declared that the Liberals had fallen 11 points behind the Conservatives, Liberals declared the poll to be a laughable mistake.
When CROP showed the Conservatives pulling up in Quebec at the expense of the Liberals, Liberals chuckled nervously.
And now Angus Reid, in association with the Liberal-friendly Toronto Star, has published a poll showing a significant 4-point lead for the Tories, as well as disheartening numbers that put Liberal Party leader Michael Ignatieff a distant second when it comes to voter preference for prime minister.
I expect even more frantic laughter declaring this yet another bad poll to be dismissed as skewed or miscalculated or something. Anything.
Meanwhile, when they think no one is looking, Liberals and their apologists will grumble and wonder just why Michael Ignatieff has turned out to be such a wet firecracker.
The Liberals are going to avoid causing an election.
No surprise there. The polls are looking bad, and they've been getting progressively (if slowly) worse since Michael Ignatieff cleverly dodged his own threat to cause an election in June.
The excuse is also the same old story. The calendar timing is bad for an election.
Yup, nothing much has changed.
This past week has seen some extraordinary polls that buck the established trend. Through the spring and summer, the Liberals and Conservatives have been deadlocked. But a national poll from Ipsos-Reid showed a shocking (and perhaps suspicious) sharp widening lead, with the Tories jumping 11 points ahead. A subsequent CROP poll showed the Liberals slipping 5 points and the Conservatives gaining 5 points in Quebec.
Other polls are still showing the deadlock. No poll is showing the Liberals improving their position.
That isn't unexpected really, since the improving economy was bound to improve Tory fortunes across the country. What is extraordinary is the messaging coming from the highest levels of the Liberal Party, aimed at other factions within the Liberal Party, and delivered through the media, in the wake of these polls.
What happened to the discipline that Michael Ignatieff was supposed to bring to the Liberal Party?
The post that has me so incensed was posted on Thursday, and I waited. Not one day, but two. But the post is still up, no one has commented on it, and it is still as offensive to me now as when I saw it 48 hours ago.
No sooner did I post a piece on Michael Ignatieff being pushed into an election, then did Michael Ignatieff issue a statement saying that it's all speculation.
Here's the problem. I don't believe him. I don't think he's lying. I just don't think he has a clue about what's going on.
Maybe it's a translation thing, but the French-language news report on the Liberals gearing up to force a fall election is remarkable in how it portrays Michael Ignatieff as a hostage of forces he cannot control. These same forces put him in as leader, and now these forces, regretting what seems to have been a mistake, are going to force an election so that they can be rid of Ignatieff.
There is no point in engaging the Liberals in the bipartisan negotiations over EI reform if Liberals are planning to trigger a fall election anyway.
Did Bob Rae abandon the leadership race so as to avoid accidently winning it?
Senator Mike Duffy delivered a speech in PEI. It was a good speech, listing in detail the stimulus funding going to PEI. Too bad the media saw fit to make up a different speech to report on.
Though Deborah Gillis is just one of four women appointed by Michael Ignatieff to be candidates in ridings for the next election, her appointment is particularly interesting because she was appointed in Halton. That riding was the former fiefdom of Garth Turner, the larger-than-life MP who was always in the headlines, it seemed.
Perhaps Michael Ignatieff would prefer a less outspoken candidate. Perhaps he didn't trust the Liberals in Halton to make the right choice.
The New York Times has published an extensive article on the Wafergate scandal, including reprinting the allegations that the entire story was planted as part of a Liberal Party political operation. That the story has gotten this sort of attention is remarkable, and likely in no small part because of the potential for journalistic corruption, and not merely incompetence, that lies at the heart of it.
If it turns out to be true that someone in the Liberal Party made this story up and got it published, the fallout could be quite severe. A lot of eyes are watching this.
Karlheinz Schreiber is finally out of Canada. Better yet, he is in Germany, but frankly, that's just a bonus as far as I'm concerned.
He utterances as he went to face the music just further undermined his credibility, and must make any reasonable person wonder just why anyone thought he had much of value to say on any topic.
It's hard to imagine a more erudite media figure in Canada than Michael Coren.
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