In Canada, gay couples can get married, a change to the definition of marriage made by Paul Martin's Liberal government and that was opposed by Stephen Harper and the Conservative Party.
Gay marriage is a reality in Canada, and is not likely to change. Nevertheless, many in the gay community continue to harbour bitterness towards the Conservative Party. For some, it goes far beyond marriage into general issues of right versus left, but consider those homosexual couples in which one partner earns a significantly greater wage than the other.
If the Conservatives make a move towards income splitting, these couples will benefit as much as a heterosexual couple. Perhaps even more since it unlikely children will factor in the family expenses. Will that cause some homosexuals, perhaps a significant number, to vote with their wallet?
What can the Liberals offer? They've already delivered on gay marriage. That fight is done with. If the Liberals think they can keep the gay vote by simply saying "We gave you marriage", they had better be ready with an answer to the question, "That's fine. But what are you going to do for me tomorrow?"
And that's what the Conservatives are going to have to do. They'll have to put the "progress" back into "progressive" and explain to the gay community that punishing the Tories for what happened in the past during the marriage debate then is foolish, considering the benefits that the Conservatives are offering all married couples in the future. I'm willing to bet that the gay community will split -- a sizable faction will see voting against the Conservatives as a case of cutting off your nose to spite your face.
Of course, these votes will come disproportionately from the portion of the gay community that has the most to gain financially, meaning the most successful and best educated. If even a few can come out of the closet as it were and declare their support for the Conservatives, then I think conservatism in Canada will benefit greatly.
Opposition to gay marriage for many conservatives, including myself, was never about bigotry or hating gays or any of the other insults thrown at us during the debate. It was about the implications to the social fabric of this country by expanding the notion of marriage so much that it loses its most basic biological underpinning (as well as a suspicion that, for some proponents of gay marriage, it was less about marriage and more about punishing Christians in some way, as evidenced by some of the rhetoric heard from these particular gay marriage supporters). The consequences of that redefinition of marriage might not be felt for a long time, and there may well be no consequences of note at all, despite my fears to the contrary. But in the mean time, for an entire community to reject the Conservative Party is unhealthy. The gay community is no more homogenous politically speaking than any other group in Canada -- submerging that variety in political affiliation in order to push through gay marriage is a tactic that has long since served its purpose and is best abandoned.
Income-splitting might well be the issue that re-engages the gay community in broad debate in this country. That's a good thing.