Angry in the Great White North

The by-election in London North Centre had only one surprise. It was not that the Liberals won a seat that they've held since the riding was created in 1997. It was the collapse of the NDP vote in favour of the Greens:

Leader Elizabeth May failed to become the first Green Party member of Parliament during an Ontario byelection Monday night, losing out to Liberal candidate Glen Pearson.

But May had a strong showing, finishing second in the polls and taking roughly five times the vote that the Green Party got last January.

The Greens drew votes from all parties as they were the only party to increase their support since the last election.

The Liberals and Conservatives dropped five and six percentage points respectively since the January election.

NDP candidate Megan Walker received only 14 per cent of the vote in Monday night's byelecton, a 10-point drop from the last election.

In the 2006 general election last February, the Liberals won with 40% of the cast votes, the Conservatives had 30%, and the NDP had a close third place showing with 24%. The Greens registered a blip at 5%.

In this week's by-election, the Liberals slipped to 35% of the cast vote, the Conservatives slipped the same amount to 24%, and the Greens roared up 26%, while the NDP were sent to the back of the line with a mere 14% of the vote.

The NDP candidate was Megan Walker. The Green Party candidate was newly elected party leader Elizabeth May.

I know this is just a by-election, but it is suggestive. First, the claim that the Green Party somehow threatens to split the progressive vote might be aiming the criticism at the wrong party. It might be the NDP that is needlessly diluting the progressive vote.

Many would say that a statement like that is not justified based on the results of one by-election, what with the protest vote against all established parties playing a larger role than would be true in a general election. True enough. But what is not easily dismissed is that these results -- a huge Green gain almost entirely at the expense of the NDP -- is a major body blow to the NDP's credibility on environmental issues. Environmentalists will use these results to justify continuing to vote Green instead of strategically for the NDP.

The fate of smaller parties is always to be labeled "a waste".

Don't vote for the Green Party, says the NDP, because it is a wasted vote.

Don't vote for the NDP, says the Liberal Party, because it is a wasted vote.

Things change. And now the NDP has to be worrying. If the Greens start edging out the NDP is ridings, or even stomp all over the NDP as in London North Centre, the Green Party will start calling the NDP the "wasted vote".