Angry in the Great White North

David Suzuki was asked on February 12, 2007, point blank, whether Canada could meet its Kyoto commitments at this late date:

Q Are Canada's Kyoto targets reachable?

A It's become very difficult at this point, but there is a way to do it, particularly with carbon taxes on an international and even interprovincial scale.

Now recall that under Kyoto, Canada must cut emissions of greenhouse gases to 6% below 1990 levels by 2012, only five years away. The problem is that in the time since Canada signed on to Kyoto, emissions have risen by 30%. So instead of knocking down emissions by 15% in 10 years, we have to cut by 50% or more in five years or less.

No wonder it seems impossible, especially since it seemed like a difficult proposition two years ago. But then maybe it wasn't so hard then. In that case, then maybe the time frittered away and the increase in emissions, as bad as it sounds, has not put the Kyoto targets out of reach.

So which is it?

I suggest getting the opinion of a respected climate change advocate from a couple of years back:

Yes, that's David Suzuki's signature on the bottom.

So in February 2005, almost exactly two years ago, David Suzuki tells Darren Barefoot that "[t]he Kyoto Protocol kicks in this month but will be tough to fulfill."

What was tough in 2005 has only got tougher. David Suzuki goes on to say that Sustainability Within a Generation "can be achieved if we start now." The Sustainability program is a superset of Kyoto put forth by the Suzuki Foundation. The plan is to meet Kyoto in 2012, then move on to even deeper cuts by 2050. The program runs from 2004 through 2030, and success in meeting Kyoto is marked as a milestone in the program timeline (see page 16).

It stands to reason that if a target in 2050 required action in February 2005, then there is even less flexibility in when to start the effort to reach the Kyoto target in 2012.

What does this do to Suzuki's credibility? Two years ago, the Kyoto goals were hard and we had to start immediately. Today, the Kyoto goals are hard and we have to start immediately. And in a year's time? Will David Suzuki still be telling anyone who listens that the goals are hard, and that will we have to start immediately? The longer he goes on in this vein, the more people are going to wonder just how connected to reality David Suzuki is.