Angry in the Great White North

Prime Minister Stephen Harper is sending out signals that, at least on the issue of Senate Reform, he can work effectively with NDP leader Jack Layton:

Prime Minister Stephen Harper will support a move to put the future of Canada's Senate up to a nationwide vote if the government can't find a way to reform it in the meantime.

The Globe and Mail has learned that the Prime Minister would add his voice to those who would support a referendum that would ask Canadians whether they wish to abolish the Senate.

The idea was broached by NDP Leader Jack Layton on the weekend. Tory Senator Hugh Segal has also put forward the notion of a nationwide plebiscite.

“If it came to the House, it would be hard not to support it,” a source told The Globe.

Yet another front to open up against Stephane Dion and the Liberals? Senate reform has been a part of the Conservative platform since the days of the Reform Party, so this is not a sudden decision taken to take advantage of Liberal weakness. But the fact is that the Liberal-dominated Senate has been a boon for Stephane Dion. He has been able to use the Senate to give the Liberals power that they don't have in the House of Commons.

Now with the Liberals abstaining on every major piece of Conservative legislation, the role of the Senate for the Liberals is even more significant.

Take away the Senate, and suddenly the Liberals are dramatically weakened.

Of course, the Senate can't be abolished overnight. But imagine a vote in the House on whether to hold such a non-binding referendum. What does Stephane Dion do?

If he votes against it, he is seen as an old-style Liberal addicted to patronage.

If he votes for it, he puts himself into a bind. The problem here is that though Stephane Dion has in the past voice support for some sort of reform (typically lightweight reforms like term limits based on agreements signed by appointed Senators), Stephane Dion has failed to get Liberal Senators on board. To vote for a referendum just to have Liberal Senators ignore him feeds into the image of an ineffective leader unable to promote the interests of Canadians against vested interests. In any case, Stephane Dion is on record as not wanting to reform the Senate in any way that requires constitutional changes:

"If you go to constitutional amendments, you need to answer two questions: are the Canadian people and our provincial partners willing to reopen the Constitution on this issue, and what's the likelihood they'll agree on the distribution on the number of seats by province?'' Dion said. "Today, I don't see any agreement on that." (CP, May 8, 2006)

A true leader would not wait for the consensus to form. A true leader builds a consensus.

Stephane Dion could change his mind on that point, of course. But then he would be open to charges of flip-flopping.

Or Stephane Dion can abstain on a vote to hold a referendum. Though yet another abstention would be funny enough, this one would be worse in many ways. Until now, the abstentions have been to avoid an election. Presumably this bill would not be a confidence measure. It doesn't seem serious enough for that, even though Senate reform was mentioned in the Throne Speech. So if Stephane Dion is seen to abstain again, without even the fig leaf of a justification that "Canadians don't want an election", he would be mauled mercilessly by the press and by his own MPs. Is there no bill sufficiently bland and inoffensive that can prompt Stephane Dion to take a stand?

No, Stephane Dion would have to vote, and vote for in favour of a referendum to abolish the Senate. If he doesn't, and Stephen Harper and Jack Layton are seen making common cause while the Stephane Dion and the Liberals are dithering and hiding, Stephane Dion will never be taken seriously when he says he wants to make Parliament work.

How many Liberal voters would wonder just why they've been told over and over again that a vote for the NDP is a wasted vote?

Of course, as is always the case with Stephane Dion, everyone else has taken the lead. Stephen Harper and Jack Layton will be seen as the architects of this plebiscite. Stephane Dion will be relegated to the guy in the back, jumping up and down to get into the camera shot, yelling "Me too! Me too!"

So for Stephen Harper, Jack Layton's idea of a referendum makes a lot of sense. On a lot of levels.

And for Stephane Dion, well, it's just another headache.