Angry in the Great White North

Let's review the litany of Liberal Party woes:

• miserable polling numbers
• polling numbers for Stephane Dion in particular that are worse than miserable
• no money
• support concentrated in urban ridings only
• safe seats are no longer safe
• laughter from all sides aimed at Liberals
• competing with the NDP and the Green Party for the same pool of votes
• Quebec organization is a shambles

That was true two weeks ago.  It's true today.  It's not likely to change two weeks from now.

So why is it on Mike Duffy Live we are hearing that the Liberals are planning to bring down the government at the end of the month?

Part of the reason might be this -- a Liberal MP planning to vote against his party by voting against the government:

The Harper government survived a potential election-triggering vote on its controversial immigration bill Wednesday after Liberals voted with the government. But at least one Liberal MP is threatening to break ranks unless the party takes a stand soon against the bill.

Before the vote, Liberal Leader Stephane Dion said his party is "adamantly against" the bill, but it's up to him to decide whether to bring down the government. "If they don't change it, we'll vote against it. And it's my decision to decide when the trigger will happen," Dion told reporters.

But Liberal MP Andrew Telegdi, who represents the Ontario riding of Kitchener-Waterloo, said Wednesday he will vote against the bill when it comes up for third reading in the House of Commons, no matter what position his party takes.

One rogue MP might be a sign of an entire faction of the Liberal caucus having reached a breaking point.

It is interesting to note that Ontario MPs are likely the most secure MPs in the Liberal Party.  Is the Ontario faction fed up with other blocs of Liberal MPs hiding behind their desks for fear of losing their seats?

Each abstention or vote in support of a bill they publicly disagree with is hurting all Liberal MPs, including the Ontario ones.  They might feel that it is a dumb move for the party to sacrifice their seats in a doomed attempt to hold on to seats in other provinces.

They might have a point.

I wonder if that's a point Bob Rae is making.  He has just joined the Liberal caucus thanks to his solid by-election win last month.  And now rumours that the Liberals are finally going to fight an election.

Fight an election despite the fact that nothing is different now from any of the other times the Liberals decided not to fight an election.

Except that Bob Rae is on the scene.

Is Bob Rae leading the Ontario Liberals in an effort to force Stephane Dion to call an election?  Michael Ignatieff represents an Ontario riding, but his core support is in Quebec.  He knows his caucus supporters might not survive an election right now.  For Bob Rae, an election right now could severely weaken Michael Ignatieff, and force Stephane Dion out of a job.

The Liberals might be reduced to an Ontario rump, but it would be Bob Rae's rump.

Call it a rump in Bob Rae's road to 24 Sussex Drive.

Addendum: Andrew Telegdi was a Gerard Kennedy supporter, which means he likely switched to Stephane Dion during the leadership convention.  I wonder if he regrets that move.