Angry in the Great White North

The Liberal Party leadership campaign is almost certainly down to two contenders, Bob Rae and Michael Ignatieff.  Dominic LeBlanc is not likely to figure unless LeBlanc is really lucky and the race is close.  In that situation, he can play kingmaker.  No other candidates are likely to declare at this point as Rae and Ignatieff vacuum up supporters.

Rae landed one yesterday in Charlottetown MP Shawn Murphy:

Rae officially announced his candidacy Thursday. Murphy said Rae has the experience needed for the job and has a great way of connecting with Canadians.

"A lot of the values that he shares, I share. Certainly one of the ones in particular is the need for a strong central government," said Murphy.

"He's the right person at this point in time for the job. He's got the experience and the intelligence and the leadership traits that people are looking for."

Generally, Shawn Murphy's comments are all fine, but that one bit about "the right person at this point in time".

I suspect Murphy didn't mean all too much by it, but it is curious, because at this particular point in time, the Liberal Party is broken.  It is hard to imagine how the next Liberal Party leader is going to become prime minister in the next election.  Obviously, political fortunes can turn on a dime, but ignoring unpredictable (and therefore, unlikely) scandals and disasters, the fact is that the next Liberal Party leader is going to be spending his time rebuilding the party.  That means trying mightily to fix fundraising.  Rebuilding the Quebec wing of the party.  Doing something about the dearth of Liberals west of Ontario.  Uniting the various factions of the party.  The list goes on.

Indeed, some people might argue that the next Liberal Party leader, like outgoing Stephane Dion, is not likely to ever become prime minister, especially if like Rae or Ignatieff, the next leader already 60 years old.  Two or three years to another election, during which a bandaged and limping Liberal Party holds its own, and barring another electoral disaster, and four year period during which the focus shifts from rebuilding and repairing party infrastructure to the vision thing.

Will that shift require new leadership?  Possibly.  Perhaps even likely.

Whatever Shawn Murphy meant personally by his "at this point in time" comment, it is something that a lot of Liberals are probably thinking.  This time around, are they seriously expecting to be selecting a potential prime minister?

Lowered expectations could help Bob Rae, for example.  He has all that baggage from his disastrous turn as Ontario premier.  It is hurting his polling numbers in Ontario in particular, and raises questions everywhere.  But then maybe that doesn't matter so much if the focus is not on winning votes in a general election, at least not more than is needed to remain as the official opposition, but on rebuilding the party in time for the election after the next.  In other words, setting things up for the next guy.

If that's the case, Liberals might not be too concerned about Bob Rae's problematic legacy, just on his competence as an organizer.  Obviously Rae's problems didn't keep Shawn Murphy from joining his team...at this point in time.