Angry in the Great White North

Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff is being very specific about why he might vote against the Conservative budget:

Arguing that a recession is not the time to cut income taxes, the federal Liberals yesterday served notice on Prime Minister Stephen Harper that he risks defeat if he goes ahead with across-the-board cuts.

Harper, whose minority Conservative government will stand or fall based on what's in the Jan. 27 budget, has said the economic rescue plan being prepared for the budget must include tax breaks for middle-class Canadians, whose spending can help revive the economy.

The Liberals are opposed to making tax cuts the centrepiece of the budget, and new leader Michael Ignatieff signalled yesterday the party is prepared to dump the Conservative minority if the budget is inadequate.

If Michael Ignatieff follows through with his threat, he'll either be forced into a coalition with the NDP, a coalition he doesn't like, and during in an economic environment in which the NDP would be strident in its demands for spending and tax hikes.

Or Michael Ignatieff would succeed in triggering an election, and frankly I think that is more likely.  But then off the front pages, Michael Ignatieff clearly is not planning on an election:

Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff today announced the creation of the Liberal Party of Canada’s Change Commission, which will be co-chaired by Doug Ferguson, President of the Liberal Party of Canada, The Honourable Dr. Carolyn Bennett, Member of Parliament for St. Paul’s, and Brigitte Garceau, President of the Westmount – Ville-Marie Federal Liberal Association.

The Change Commission was created by the National Executive of the Liberal Party of Canada with a mandate to consider nine specific questions related to the long term strategic change of the Party.

“This process is about listening to the grassroots of our Party,” said Mr. Ignatieff.

In her capacity as Co-Chair of the Change Commission, Dr. Bennett will also serve as the liaison to the newly created special committee on party renewal.

How do you renew the party in the midst of an election?  Or while trying to keep an unruly coalition together while managing an economy during a recession?

Not to mention the fact that all these people involved in these committees would be too busy in either case to actually do these renewal things.

If Michael Ignatieff was really thinking about a potential election, why not announce an election readiness team?

He hasn't and I don't even see such a move behind the scenes.

Part of this renewal process is the launch of En Famille, a Liberals-only website for gathering ideas from the grassroots.

I've gone through the site in some detail.  [Steve, how did you get into a Liberal-only website?  Um, I dunno.  Anyway...]

It is an attempt to be a single-stop for collaboration on a number of different levels:

Most of all, En famille is intended to your place, reflect your needs and provide you with the means and the scope to contribute to the broader Liberal community in whatever way works best for you.  We have only just scratched the surface in terms of what the site can do.  Forums for discussion were the first priority to accommodate the LPC(O) policy process and, starting in January, national online workshops in preparation for the Convention.  This is the first use of blogs, but others will follow.  Wikis will be available for collaboration on more substantive documents.  Private groups can be set up for committees and task forces.  There are also lots of social networking features that you can start exploring.

This site is about getting ready for the convention in May, and has only just launched.  Forget about an election or coalition talk.

But even when it comes to focusing on the convention, the site has barely gotten started.  First of all, the site is essentially an Ontario-only discussion, given that it was launched early at a special request from the LPC(O):

We were intending to have it ready by the end of December, but instead opened it last Friday [ed, December 19] to accommodate LPC(O)'s pressing need for an online alternative for its province-wide policy resolution debates and prioritization to meet the national deadline for the Vancouver Convention. 

At this point in time, virtually everyone on the site is from Ontario.  That will change rapidly as LPC announces En famille to the membership at large and we open it up nationally.  The current interim arrangement between LPC and the grassroots volunteer team will continue over the next several months as the En famille community expands to become representative of the Liberal membership nationally.

I think it's fair to say that the discussion on renewal hasn't really started yet, and representation outside of Ontario is still low.  Michael Ignatieff only made an official announcement yesterday:

An online consultative process will begin this weekend on En Famille, a new Liberals-only online discussion forum.

“We have an excellent team leading the process to make the changes we need prior to the next federal election and to consider the longer-term changes we need for the future of our Party,” said Mr. Ignatieff.

I did count nearly 1900 member accounts, so it looks things are ramping up.  But then that might be the 1900 Ontario members who were using the site in December as a special favour.

So while the Liberals are trying to kick off their renewal discussion and trying to get the mechanics of that discussion to go live, Michael Ignatieff is simultaneously  threatening to trigger an election or throw the party into a coalition government.

It really seems like the Michael Ignatieff is just talk right now.  Nothing I see under the Liberal covers suggests a party on the verge of fighting an election or taking over government.

Admittedly, there are private areas in the site that I can't see, so maybe the election/coalition talk is happening fast and furious.

But my get tells me the opposite is true.  Ignoring Michael Ignatieff's tough talk, I see a party that is going to be looking inward for several months at least, and quite possibly longer.

Update: What I've seen at En Famille would suggest that unnamed Liberal insiders are right on the money when they say Michael Ignatieff is in no rush to leave the opposition benches:

Liberal insiders say Michael Ignatieff would prefer more time to rebuild the party and prepare for an election, rather than possibly topple the government next week by refusing to support the budget.

If that's the case, Michael Ignatieff had better be ready with a plausible excuse to support the budget after all the noise he's been making recently.  I wonder if he's playing to Bob Rae Liberals, trying to keep them mollified.  Maybe I should look for signs that Bob Rae is not a happy guy right now.  I mean besides the fact that Bob Rae's website still offers up articles on how Bob Rae was the true Liberal leader during coalition madness, how the Liberals must pursue the coalition option after Parliament reconvenes, and finally, how the Liberal Party would be making a mistake if Michael Ignatieff was appointed Liberal leader without a party-wide vote involving the grass roots membership.

Really, if Bob Rae was supporting Michael Ignatieff, you'd think he'd retire these articles from his front page.  Are Michael Ignatieff's comments, in seeming contradiction with what the Liberal Party is actually doing, part of an effort to keep the Liberals together?  Are the internal divisions in the Liberal Party worse than we think?