Angry in the Great White North

In December, the Conservative government of Stephen Harper faced being overthrown by a coalition of the Liberal Party under Stephane Dion and the socialist NDP led by Jack Layton, with the support (though not the formal participation) of the separatist Bloc Quebecois under Gilles Duceppe.

Stephen Harper prorogued parliament before the coalition could vote down the government, and in the interim, Stephane Dion was deposed and replaced by Michael Ignatieff.

On January 26, parliament reconvened and the Conservatives brought down the budget the next day.  Jack Layton and Gilles Duceppe immediately promised to vote it down and announced that they remained committed to installing the coalition as a government without an election.

But Michael Ignatieff abandoned the coalition, and decided to support the Tory budget with one mild amendment (the Conservatives have already announced that they will accept the amendment proposed), leaving Jack Layton sputtering.  His coalition was now officially dead.

I wanted to recap the story to point out that, for Jack Layton, the villain in this story is Michael Ignatieff, not Stephen Harper.  It is perfectly understandable why Jack Layton would be furious with the Liberal leader:

Mr. Ignatieff's move provoked outrage from New Democratic Party Leader Jack Layton and Bloc Quebecois Leader Gilles Duceppe, who wanted the Liberals to defeat the government over the budget as early as next week. Mr. Layton accused Mr. Ignatieff of "propping up" Mr. Harper, and Mr. Duceppe declared the opposition coalition formed early last month "dead."

Messrs. Layton and Duceppe's strong reaction put Mr. Ignatieff on the defensive in the House of Commons, where he denied during budget debate there is any Liberal alliance with the minority Conservative government, and vowed to hold Mr. Harper "on a very tight leash."

Mr. Layton immediately slammed Mr. Ignatieff, saying the Liberals no longer had the right to claim to be the government-in-waiting.

"We have a new coalition now on Parliament Hill. It's a coalition between Mr. Harper and Mr. Ignatieff," Mr. Layton told reporters.

So I wonder just how long this fury will last before burning out, if ever.

Realistically, the coalition represented the only chance Jack Layton would ever have to sit on the government benches as a member of the NDP.  Indeed, it might turn out that, looking back, we'll recognize that this was the closest the NDP, as a party, ever got to being in government.

And Michael Ignatieff took that away - not just Jack Layton's chance at power, but his place in history as well.

During the last election, Jack Layton took aim squarely at the Liberals, prompted by the hope that the NDP could wrestle significant support away from the Liberals under Stephane Dion.  The result was mediocre at best, and the NDP only marginally improved their standing in parliament.

So logic would dictate that the NDP ought to alter the strategy.  But is Jack Layton capable of thinking logically?

Or is he reacting with such emotion to the opportunity that he has seen taken away from him that he will make it his mission to take down Michael Ignatieff?  Not to necessarily help the NDP, but in order to hurt the Liberals?

I don't know Jack Layton, so I can't judge what he is likely to do.  But of all the events surrounding the budget drama over the last several weeks, Michael Ignatieff's decision is the only one that could reasonably deemed a betrayal.

For Gilles Duceppe, this is not a big deal.  Everything that happens in the rest of Canada, from a shift in the tax code to the rain in Toronto, is a betrayal as far as he is concerned.  Betrayals are simply talking points for Quebec separatists, collected like so many hockey cards.

Indeed, everyone seems to win but Jack Layton.  Thanks to the coalition, Stephane Dion was ousted and Michael Ignatieff was installed as Liberal leader without having to fight a leadership campaign.  Stephen Harper is still prime minister and will be for a year, or maybe more.  Gilles Duceppe grins as he gets to add another betrayal to his collection.

What does Jack Layton get?  A big "What if..." in the history books.

Jack Layton has to feel like the most ill-used politician in Canada. 

Do you think his anger is going to fade?  I don't think so.  Consider that Barack Obama is going to visit on February 19.  Thanks to Michael Ignatieff's decision, the popular US president is going to spend most of his time with Stephen Harper.  As leader of the opposition, Michael Ignatieff will get some face time too.

Jack Layton?  Yeah, right.  Maybe 15 minutes.  I mean, it's not like Jack Layton has any official parliamentary role, or is likely to have one, ever.  He's just the leader of the smallest, least important party in parliament.  Barack Obama will be too busy with offical events with Conservative government politicians to listen to Jack Layton gush about how he is so much like Obama and agrees with him on so many issues.

On the off chance that Jack Layton's anger from the events of the last couple of days has faded somewhat by then, this is guaranteed to stoke it again.

Oh yeah, Jack Layton is mad and is going to be for a long time, and it's all because of Michael Ignatieff.

It'll be interesting to see if Jack Layton is going to be aiming at Michael Ignatieff.  If he does, there are two questions that need to be considered:

1. Can Stephen Harper use this to keep the opposition, and Canada's left in general, off balance and at each other's throats, and so stay in power?
2. Will others inside the NDP tolerate Jack Layton's personal vendetta for long, and when their patience runs out, will there be a move against Jack Layton to replace him?