Angry in the Great White North

It always seemed to be a technicality, but Michael Ignatieff is actually the interim leader of the Liberal Party.  According to the party constitution, the permanent leader can only be installed as a result of the delegated leadership convention.

That convention won't happen until May.  To get around that, the pro-Ignatieff Liberals strong-armed Bob Rae and Dominic LeBlanc to drop out of the leadership race, leaving Michael Ignatieff as the only candidate standing.  Then he was made the interim leader (the most that the party executive and caucus can do outside of a convention).

Of course, without any other candidates in the running, Michael Ignatieff is the leader of the Liberal Party, and the upcoming convention has devolved from a contest into a coronation.

Perhaps we ought to be reattaching "interim" back to the label "Liberal Party leader Michael Ignatieff", as it seems that he doesn't control his caucus as effectively as a permanent leader might.  Newfoundland and Labrador Premier Danny Williams is demanding the Liberal MPs from ridings in his province vote against the Conservative budget.  Two MPs, Judy Foote and Scott Andrews, have decided to take orders from Danny Williams, not Michael Ignatieff:

A Newfoundland Liberal MP says he will break party ranks and vote against the federal budget if necessary, the second party member to do so.

Scott Andrews, who represents the riding of Avalon, told VOCM Radio he is prepared to go against his party and oppose the budget if it doesn't protect $1.5 billion that the province is entitled to.

Judy Foote, member for Random-Burin-St. George's, has also said she will vote against the budget if it doesn't protect the Atlantic Accord money.

It boils down to who you fear more.  Judy Foote and Scott Andrews clearly fear what Danny Williams can do to then more than what Michael Ignatieff can do.  That's remarkable, since Danny Williams isn't even a Liberal, and when it comes to the mechanics of being a federal MP, it is Michael Ignatieff who signs their nomination papers.

But then Michael Ignatieff is only the interim leader, after all.

It's just two MPs out of 77, so far, but can Michael Ignatieff afford open defiance at this early stage?  When Bob Rae dropped out of the race, he did so in the face of what seemed to be an unstoppable Ignatieff juggernaut.  If the Michael Ignatieff is seen to have a problem keeping the Liberal Party united, Bob Rae and others might see an opportunity to get back into the race.

That's unlikely, but I think it is very likely that Bob Rae will be less inclined to defer too quickly to Michael Ignatieff on issues on which they differ (which is nearly any issue you care to mention) if Michael Ignatieff is seen as a weak leader.

For Michael Ignatieff then, the choice is crushing the rebels now or going up against the likes of Bob Rae later.  United the Liberal Party now by making an example of these two MPs, or always be saddled with a factionalized Liberal Party.

But there is still that pesky interim thing.  Can Michael Ignatieff face down Danny Williams and get his Newfoundland and Labrador MPs to follow him?  If he tries, will Danny Williams lash out against Ignatieff, perhaps using Ignatieff's status as interim leader as a weapon against Ignatieff?

Danny Williams is trying to get other provincial premiers to put pressure on federal Liberal MPs in riding from their provinces to reject Michael Ignatieff's decision.  If Michael Ignatieff does not nip this in the bud, the problem has the potential to grow.

So why wouldn't Michael Ignatieff take on Danny Williams?  One very good reason is that the optics are awful.  Michael Ignatieff would be confronting the popular premier, defending his decision to support a Conservative budget.

Michael Ignatieff could admit that the Conservative budget is imperfect in regards to Newfoundland and Labrador in a bid to curry favour with Danny Williams.  But then Ignatieff would be defending his decision to support a bad Conservative budget.  It just gets worse.

Think of what the next set of NDP radio attack ads would say about that!

All because Michael Ignatieff couldn't get two MPs (so far) to follow him.  And this while in opposition!  Imagine if Ignatieff was prime minister trying to push through a budget that Danny Williams didn't like for one reason or another (or for no reason at all, but just to get on the news).

Hey, being a leader of a political leader isn't easy.  Fortunately for the Liberals, if Michael Ignatieff can't figure out how to do it right, there is an opportunity in May to switch leaders again.

But for that to happen, someone would have to register as a leadership candidate by February 6, so I doubt it will happen.

Maybe Michael Ignatieff will be crowned Liberal leader after all.  But it might not be the rousing endorsement people have been hoping for.

The story gets ahead of me: Technical difficulties have kept the blog offline since this early morning, when I wrote this piece.  At the time, only Judy Foote had broken ranks.  Over the course of the day, Scott Andrews joined her, and I updated the post at lunch while waiting for the server to come up.  Who knows what other "updates" might be needed?