Angry in the Great White North

The financial returns for the federal parties are in, covering the last quarter of 2008.  Here's a quick sketch:

• For the Liberals, a measurable uptick in income, from $2,077,930 in Q3 to $2,304,652 in Q4.
• For the NDP, things have gotten slightly worse, dropping from $1,890,900 in Q3 to $1,771,094 in Q4.
• The Conservatives have stayed essentially constant, nudging down from $6,367,676 in Q3 to $6,345,500 in Q4.

So what does this mean?

For the Liberals, the news is good.  When you break down the numbers in detail, they've improved even more than the total numbers suggest.  Eliminating transfers from candidates and riding associations, and just looking at donations from individuals, the Liberals went from $1,855,252 in Q3 to $2,286,751 in Q4.  The donation base also seemed to grow, from 15,027 contributors in Q3 to 17,558 contributors in Q4.

The bad news is that despite these improvements, the Liberals are still only slightly better than the NDP.  In terms of total contributions, and in terms of number of contributors, the Liberals and the NDP don't look all that different.

The Conservative Party is still a fund-raising juggernaut.  In addition to nearly tripling the Liberals in terms of total cash raised, the Conservative donor base is more than double the size of the Liberals, coming in at 49,065.  Worse news for the Liberals is that the Conservatives also increased the number of donations in the same quarter, the number of contributors growing from the 47,315 total in Q3.

Of course, in Q4, no party can expect much.  Christmas gift-giving sucks up a lot of disposable income.  In the last quarter of last year, we also had donor fatigue from the election having just come to a conclusion, as well as the nervousness from the recession that seemed to be around the corner.

Yet despite all that, the Liberal numbers went measurably up.  Was it because of the potential coalition?  Or because Michael Ignatieff replaced the hapless Stephan Dion?

Here is a chart of the number of donations over time (click on the graph to enlarge it):

Now this is interesting.  Immediately after the coalition was signed, there was an increase in the number of Liberal donations, but not nearly as impressive as the sustained increase in the number of Conservative donations.

On the other hand, the fading of the coalition with the installment of Michael Ignatieff saw Liberal donations pull up in number.

So the Liberals are still in trouble - no doubt about that.  But financially speaking, Michael Ignatieff made the right choice to drop Jack Layton and the NDP as coalition partners.  Nothing seemed more reassuring to Liberal donors than learning that the Liberal Party is not another socialist party like the NDP.

Leadership Debt Update:

So how much money did the leadership candidates of 2006 raise in Q4 to repay their debts?

• Michael Ignatieff: $420,859.51
• Stephane Dion: $144,443.49
• Bob Rae: $101.373.00
• Ken Dryden: $37,675.00
• Gerard Kennedy: $29,248.00
• Martha Hall-Findlay: $22,800.75
• Scott Brison: $14,468.00
• Joe Volpe: $2,000.00
• Hedy Fry: $210.00

In the summer of 2008, the candidates reported these outstanding debt amounts:

• Ken Dryden $353,679
• Gerard Kennedy $268,178
• Maurizio Bevilacqua $259,901
• Stephane Dion ~$250,000**
• Martha Hall Findlay $199,460
• Michael Ignatieff $187,700
• Joe Volpe $173,000
• Scott Brison $105,000
• Hedy Fry $104,500

Note that Stephane Dion's debt is not well defined.  Officially, it stood at almost $700,000 in July 2008, but it was reported by Liberal insiders at that time that the number was out of date, and that the real debt was only $250,000.  Note also that Bob Rae and Carolyn Bennett were both debt-free by July 2008.  Presumably the fund-raising in Q4 by Bob Rae was for his aborted run against Michael Ignatieff that would have happened this year.