Angry in the Great White North

Imagine that four MPs in your caucus surprise everyone and ignore a whipped vote.

As a political leader, how bad is this?  Well, it's not good.  But then it was a surprise to everyone, and though some critics will say you should have known, unless these critics knew beforehand, the criticism won't sting too much.

Of course, the job for you is to bring your caucus to heel.  But then you now know who the rebels are, and swift action will send a message to the rest of the caucus before the problem gets any larger.

This is not the script being played out by Michael Ignatieff and the Liberal Party.

Instead, Michael Ignatieff has allowed a rebellion to grow, without any apparent ability to quell it, over an extended period of time.

On January 30, Judy Foote was the first Liberal MP to say she would vote against the Conservative budget on orders from Newfoundland and Labrador Premier Danny Williams, even though Michael Ignatieff has decided that the Liberals would support it.

Several hours later, Scott Andrews joined her. 

Nothing happened in front of the cameras for a couple of days.  Did Michael Ignatieff take control of the situation?

Apparently not.  This morning, Scott Sims joined the rebellion.

About four hours later, Siobhan Coady made it four.

So what has Michael Ignatieff been doing all this time?  Has he been trying to unite his caucus?  That would seem to be an obvious precondition to uniting the party as a whole.

If he has been trying, clearly he has failed, and that is bad.

if he hasn't been trying, then he's already given up, and that is bad.

It could be an elaborate trap, I suppose.  Flush out the rebels, as it were.  But that is hardly a recipe for a happy caucus in the long run.

Maybe he figures the contingent of MPs from Newfoundland and Labrador don't warrant the time and effort.  If there was a rebellion brewing among Ontario MPs, well, that would be a different story.  Two class of provinces: those that count and those that don't.

Nah. [Update:  Michael Ignatieff chooses to treat these MPs as a special case.  I figured this was the least likely outcome.  Shows what I know.]

My theory is this.  Michael Ignatieff and his (partial) team are trying to put this rebellion down, and they've been failing.  I'm going to go out on a limb, and suggest that they've been trying to make a deal with Premier Danny Williams, promising him, well, whatever they think they can promise him.  In return, Williams returns these Liberal MPs to Michael Ignatieff.

I'm not talking about the officially sanctioned discussions taking place between Michael Ignatieff, Danny Williams, and Stephen Harper.  I mean some sort of side deal between the federal Liberals and Danny Williams.

But it isn't working.  Williams has seemed to acknowledge the effort, but in reality, he thinks he can get more from Michael Ignatieff.  Or he doesn't believe Michael Ignatieff can credibly promise anything at all, so he is not going to be happy with anything less than a new budget.  In any case, Michael Ignatieff bargains in vain, while Danny Williams does nothing to stop the slow, and very public, revolt.

At this point, it is hard to see how this can work out well for Michael Ignatieff.  The rebels can be thrown out, and the caucus gets smaller.  Heck, the NDP might pick them up.

Oh God!  Even the Green Party!

He can let them vote against party lines, inviting even more widespread chaos within the caucus.

He can cave, and vote down the budget, or try to introduce a new amendment to appease Danny Williams.  But I don't know if the Liberal can introduce an amendment at this point in the legislative process.  The Conservatives wouldn't  accept it in any case, leaving Michael Ignatieff responsible for bringing the government down.  The Liberals are in no shape to fight an election, and there is no other option, given that the Liberal-NDP coalition was destroyed by Michael Ignatieff himself, and could not be reconstituted - at least not without massive concessions to the NDP and the Bloc Quebecois.

Wow, concessions to Danny Williams, the NDP, and the Bloc Quebecois.  And Michael Ignatieff still loses.

Like I said, I can't see this ending well for Michael Ignatieff.  Allowing this to play out in public has done a lot of damage already.