Angry in the Great White North

The Liberal Party convention is not likely to bring the house down.  In fact, the only question is just how few people are actually going to show up:

The Liberals will meet for a biennial convention and a leadership convention in Vancouver, where Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff (Etobicoke-Lakeshore, Ont.) is expected to be acclaimed, from April 30 to May 3.

The Liberal Party's new fee structure considers how far the delegate has to travel. So, a delegate coming from British Columbia will pay the full registration fee of $995, but a delegate coming from Labrador or Nunavut won't pay any registration fee. Delegates coming from Yukon, Alberta and Saskatchewan will pay the full fee and delegates in other provinces, depending on the location of the riding, will get a discount.

Liberal MPs and potential delegates told The Hill Times that the turnout at their convention is expected to be low because of high costs and because the leadership is a foregone conclusion with Mr. Ignatieff already ensconced. Liberals said the cost to attend it could be as high as $3,000 because in addition to the registration fee, delegates will have to pay hotel costs.

Ironically, the rules were changed in order to increase attendance:

Each one of the 308 ridings across the country can send up to 22 voting delegates to the convention. Of these, 20 are elected delegates while the riding association president and the candidate of record or the elected MP are automatic delegates. For the 2006 leadership convention in Montreal, each riding was allowed to send 14 delegates but Liberals increased this number to 22 last year to bring in more delegates. On top of elected candidates, ex-officio delegates-all former MPs, current and former Senators, former party leaders, members of the national executive and representatives of the Provincial Territorial associations are also allowed to attend as delegates.

The 2006 convention was a success.  Under the rules at the time, 4312 delegates could be sent from each riding (this is excluding ex-officio delegates), and at the convention, 4063 delegates attended.

For the 2009 convention, the upper limit (excluding ex-officio delegates) is 6776 delegates, but the expection is much, much lower:

Liberal sources told The Hill Times that they're expecting 2000-2500 delegates to attend the Vancouver convention.

Half as much as in 2006, and a third of the total number of allowed delegates.

Is this a disaster?  According to the Liberals, this is not a big deal:

Liberal MP Ujjal Dosanjh (Vancouver South, B.C.), co-chair of the convention in an interview last week, downplayed the significance of the turnout at the convention.

"Low compared to what? Low compared to a contested leadership convention? Most likely. If you have a contested leadership convention, you'd have a full contingent of delegates from all ridings. And if you don't, you may not have a full contingent and that's only normal. The last Tory convention in Winnipeg only had about 2,000 delegates. We will certainly do better than that," said Mr. Dosanjh, but declined to say how many delegates are expected.

What are these delegates going to do?  Rubberstamp Michael Ignatieff's appointment as leader of the Liberal Party.  How many delegates do you need to do that?

Maybe the question isn't really rhetorical.  How many delegates do you want when the goal is just to rubberstamp decisions made by the party executive?

I think the answer is as few as possible from the riding level.

The ex-officio delegates are likely to be well represented.  There are nearly 900 ex-officio delegates in the Liberal Party, or easily one-third of the number of delegates expected at the Vancouver convention, assuming most of the ex-officio delegates show up.  They represent the top tier of the party, both in terms of party power, as well as personal resources.  As a group, they are the best positioned to attend the convention, regardless of the cost.  Moreover, being part of the party establishment, the majority are looking for a convention in which nothing controversial happens. They've done more than merely made their peace with Michael Ignatieff's Liberal Party, they've carved out their piece of this new party, or will have by May.  Anything less than a smooth acclamation of Michael Ignatieff's leadership could jeopardize that.

Riding delegates, on the other hand, are wild cards.  They are elected locally by Liberals who are paid members but not full-time party apparatchiks.  They'll come with local concerns and they won't have much reason to keep quiet.  Each delegation is potentially another Newfoundland and Labrador headache.  If there are any major slipups by Michael Ignatieff between now and May (I mean besides forgoing the chance of becoming prime minister via the coalition, and then giving Danny Williams control of Liberal MPs from Newfoundland and Labrador), these delegates might be embarrassingly vocal.

I think the people running the Liberal Party won't be too disappointed if the Vancouver convention becomes a meeting of the top-most echelon of the party leadership and nothing else.  That way, they can dispense with the technicalities of handing the party leadership to Michael Ignatieff, retroactively approve every decision he has made, and make a show of unity.

Look at Ujjal Dosanjh's comments as the official party talking point:  Yes, we're making it easier for delegates to attend from every riding.  Unfortunately we're constrained by Elections Canada rules from really making a difference.  No, we're not relocating the convention to a more central location to make it easier for a more diverse representation of ridings to send delegates.  Of course, the convention will be a stunning success no matter how many delegates attend, which logically means that we don't need to have too many delegates attend.  All Liberals will be speaking as one when they are told to approve of Michael Ignatieff's leadership.  Did you know Michael Ignatieff went to Harvard?