Angry in the Great White North

None of this should come as a surprise.  It is Liberal conceit, born of Michael Ignatieff's own self-importance, that the Liberal Party can force an election at the time of its choosing.  When will that be?  In the fall, say the Liberal insiders.

Of course, this is nonsense.  The Liberals can't force anything.  Both the NDP and the Bloc Quebecois have to join with the Liberals to defeat the government on a confidence measure.  Indeed, if only one party supports the Conservatives (even by just abstaining from a confidence vote), then Stephen Harper remains in power.

The Liberals will want to force an election when they are polling well.  But at that moment, the Liberals will be a danger to both the NDP and the Bloc Quebecois, so neither of those parties will be eager to go into an election against a strong Liberal Party.

The Liberals are hardly strong at this point, but they are enjoying some momentum, and it is no wonder that the NDP and the Bloc Quebecois are sending strong signals that they will be looking for any reason not to help the Liberals trigger an election:

The Bloc Quebecois is set to lay down a series of economic policies on which it hopes to work with the Conservative government.

And that will provide Prime Minister Stephen Harper with two potential opposition dance partners to keep his minority government alive.

Bloc Leader Gilles Duceppe told The Canadian Press he will unveil a series of economic policies at a news conference Thursday in Ottawa.

NDP Leader Jack Layton says he wants to work with the Tories on a more generous Employment Insurance program, and better protection for credit-card holders and pensioners.

So why not help the Liberals?  Wouldn't it be easier for the NDP, for example, to find common ground with a Liberal government, even if it means taking a beating in an election in order to get there?

Well, there is the issue of losing seats and votes, and so losing funding.  The NDP can't ignore that.

But more than that is the fallout from Michael Ignatieff's duplicity with regards to the coalition agreement in December.  Michael Ignatieff signed the letter that formalized the agreement between Stephane Dion's Liberals and Jack Layton's NDP to form a coalition government.  Then after Stephane Dion (predictably) flubbed it and Stephen Harper prorogued parliament, Michael Ignatieff was installed as Liberal Party leader without the bother of a vote.  Without anyone to answer to, Michael Ignatieff tore up the agreement he signed, and told Jack Layton to take a hike.  The Bloc Quebecois was not a formal partner in the sense of being given cabinet posts, but the agreement included a promise to support the coalition.  Michael Ignatieff kicked Gilles Duceppe to the curb as well.

Isolated, Michael Ignatieff can plot and scheme with his inner circle, pawing over polling numbers like Gollum caressing the One Ring, to no avail.  Jack Layton in particular will relish the chance to punish Michael Ignatieff.  I think Stephen Harper and the Conservatives will, within reason, accommodate Jack Layton on this, giving Layton some face-saving means to support the Conservatives, and allowing him to take credit for some element of government policy.

Interestingly, Stephen Harper set the stage for his during the debate, when he praised Jack Layton for his honesty and sincerity and for his role in the residential school apology.  There might have been some genuine goodwill established there, just enough to tip Jack Layton to keeping the government in power for quite some time, at least under this circumstances.

And time is all that is needed.  Right now Michael Ignatieff is benefiting from tough economic news and media excitement over his upcoming coronation. That will fade quickly, and soon people will notice that Michael Ignatieff has yet to enunciate anything resembling a policy platform.  That and another couple of gaffes (Michael Ignatieff is prone to those) and a recovering economy will boost the Conservatives and bring the Liberals down. Then all bets are off, and an election can happen.

Of course, at that point, the Liberals might be the ones eager to block an election.