Angry in the Great White North

The Liberals under Michael Ignatieff have repeatedly failed to take advantage of opportunities to topple the Conservative government.  Why?  It's always for the same reason.  Michael Ignatieff has repeatedly failed to improve Liberal fortunes beyond what Stephane Dion had done.  Sure the Liberals have more money than they used to (though I wonder about that), but in the polls, the Liberals haven't broken through.  Indeed, the polls show a steady erosion of Liberal support among voters (and at least two polls show a dramatic downturn).

And so without positive polling results, the Liberals scuttle away.

But the declared reason that is given to hide the real reason is usually calendar-based.  Like it's suddenly bad to have a winter election.  And that's funny, because the calendar is there for everyone to see.  It's like the Liberals are surprised at when winter comes or something.

Maybe Michael Ignatieff is surprised at when winter comes, given that he hasn't been in Canada for all that long.  

Today we learn that the Liberals, again, are going to avoid forcing an election call, again because of lousy polling numbers (and we can speculate at what internal polls show), and again the stated reason is that the dates aren't good -- dates that have not changed in weeks.

I mean, they keep coming back to the same crappy excuse, over and over again, perhaps thinking that it will make more sense the more times they use it.

If [the Liberals] were to use their first opposition day to move a confidence motion, Liberals would have little more than two weeks of Commons time to develop those other issues [medical isotope shortage, infrastructure spending, deficit control] or to inflict much damage on the Tories, who've crept back into a statistical tie with the Liberals in the polls amid the summer doldrums.

While a confidence vote in early October is "possible," Goodale acknowledged the "tight timeframe" will be an issue for Ignatieff as he mulls over when and if to try to defeat the government.

"We'll take that factor into account too because it is important for Parliament to have at least a little time to get its traction back," he said, noting that the government has had "a pretty free ride" over the summer.

But it has always been a tight timeframe.  It never mattered before, when the Liberals looked at the calendar and saw weeks of time during which Michael Ignatieff could work his magic and make the Liberals popular again.  But as Michael Ignatieff frittered the time away going to England to give speeches, suddenly the Liberals realized that the party would actually have a real fight on their hands.  Just as suddenly, this timeframe has become too short to properly defeat the government.

Oh Lordie, these guys are so funny.

So again, the timing is poor for an election.  Yeah, right.  Cowards.  I do believe, however, that Michael Ignatieff will eventually cause an election.  Stephane Dion did not.  He scurried and dodged and ran, until Stephen Harper got so fed up that he called an election himself.  Michael Ignatieff will be forced, at some point, by hawks within his own party, to call an election.  An election that will result in a weak Liberal government, but far more likely, a Conservative government.  For the hawks, this will be just fine, because in all likelihood it will result in Michael Ignatieff's ignominious end as Liberal Party leader.  That will give the Liberal Party a third kick at the can at selecting a post Chretien-Martin leader.  Two duds in a row -- who expects three?

And if it turns out that the third leader turns out to be as equally ineffective as Dion and Ignatieff, then the Liberals have a calendar full of excuses to avoid causing elections.