Angry in the Great White North

Consider Michael Ignatieff's alleged proof that he wouldn't enter into a coalition:

Asked whether a Liberal government would enter into a coalition with the other two parties, Ignatieff said: "I think I made it very clear by my behaviour last January in relation to coalition politics. I didn't think it was in the national interest. I could be standing here as prime minister of Canada, but I turned it down."

When asked whether he would enter to an informal governing arrangement with the other parties, Ignatieff sidestepped the question.

Immigration Minister Jason Kenney said Ignatieff's answer was ambiguous.

"He could have said 'no.' Instead, Ignatieff gave a circular, 51-word answer and refused to rule out a coalition," Kenney wrote in an email to The Canadian Press.

Michael Ignatieff didn't enter into the coalition for two reasons:

1. He did not like that coalition.
2. He didn't think he needed a coalition.

Let's consider these points in order.

Michael Ignatieff did not like the coalition agreement negotiated by his predecessor, Stephane Dion.  At 77 seats, the Liberals were (a) too beholden to the NDP and (b) dependent on the support of the Bloc Quebecois.

As I pointed out in my previous post, a coalition with the NDP in which the ratio of Liberal seats to NDP seats is 3.5 to 1 instead of Stephane Dion's coalition ratio of 2 to 1 would definitely seem much more appealing to any Liberal.  And a coalition in which the Liberal and NDP seat total was sufficient to outnumber the Tories, without Bloc Quebecois support, is far more politically palatable.

But the second point is far more interesting.  In those giddy days immediately after Stephane Dion was ejected as Liberal Party leader, and the power brokers of the Liberal Party had successfully intimidated all of Michael Ignatieff's actual and potential leadership rivals into acquiescing to an Ignatieff coronation, it must have seemed like only a matter of time before Michael Ignatieff would be installed as prime minister by a grateful electorate who recognized the obvious intellectual superiority of the man from Harvard.

A coalition with NDP leader Jack Layton at the cabinet table, hectoring his Liberal co-conspirators about "kitchen table" this and "working families" that?  Who in their right mind would want that?  Certainly not Michael Ignatieff, who was probably being told by his handlers that he would soon be prime minister of a solely Liberal government.

Then reality happened.  Leadership of an unruly caucus was hard.  The Tories regained their footing.  The economy stopped its downward spiral, and a recovery could be seen glimmering in the distance.

Worst of all, Canadians did not catch Iggymania.

Before Michael Ignatieff knew it, it was the end of the summer.  The Liberal caucus was still unruly.  Not only had the Tories righted themselves, they had captured the initiative and were beginning to pull away in the polls.  The economic recovery was no longer a glimmer, but a bright light, encompassing more and more Canadians in its warm glow, a glow that was beginning to reflect well off the Conservatives.

And Iggymania?  You wish.  Polls showed Michael Ignatieff's negatives jumping dramatically through the summer.

In January, Michael Ignatieff thought he had the luxury of time, and so eschewed a coalition in which he would have been forced to share too much of the limelight.

It's now September, and Michael Ignatieff realizes he has run out of time.  If he waits any longer, his polling numbers might be so bad that even the most delusional Liberal apologist might look at Michael Ignatieff and see, well, Stephane Dion.

And in a matter of months, even weeks, the Conservatives will enjoy the benefits of an economic recovery, benefits that the Liberals believe are rightly to be stolen by them.

But the Liberals have money, and Michael Ignatieff isn't Stephane Dion (yet), so it is quite possible that an election now will see the Liberals gain back ten or more seats.  With that strengthened hand, and knowing that it is the best deal to be had for quite some time, Michael Ignatieff would certainly consider a coalition with a weakened NDP.

Did Michael Ignatieff reject a chance to be prime minister in January?  Yes, but that means nothing!

A lot has changed since January.

With his back against the wall, and forced into an election of his own devising (but perhaps also the best chance for the Liberals to improve their seat count before the economic recovery is apparent to all Canadians), Michael Ignatieff is certainly considering a coalition of his own design as the best path to Sussex Drive.

If Michael Ignatieff is rejecting the possibility of a coalition, he should just say so.  Period.

But he won't.  Because he knows it would be a lie.