Angry in the Great White North

Three visits to the probation officer to deliver a report card.  That was what Michael Ignatieff demanded as the price of his support for the Conservative budget.

Stephen Harper allowed Michael Ignatieff to play at being the probation officer.  This was part of a narrative Michael Ignatieff was constructing.  Ignatieff had given himself a year to craft a story that was supposed to go like this:

• Only a few months after an election, Michael Ignatieff magnanimously allowed the Conservatives to govern, but only under his watchful eye.
• Midway through the year, the failings of the Conservatives became clear, and public anger was growing.  The clamour for Michael Ignatieff's wise leadership was being heard across the country.  Michael Ignatieff would publicly consider forcing an election, but still, a summer election?  No, Michael Ignatieff in the end would counsel patience, but would declare that his patience was thin indeed.
• It was the fall.  The Conservatives have abjectly failed.  The economy was worse now than it was in January.  The polls showed the Liberals positioned to take their rightful place at the head of a majority government.  The other opposition parties, cowed at the strength of Ignatieff's Liberals, agreed to force an election, hoping to poach seats from the collapsing Conservatives to compensate seats lost to the Liberals.

Instead, it has gone like this:

• Only a few months after an election, Michael Ignatieff magnanimously allowed the Conservatives to govern, but only under his watchful eye.  Media pundits giggled.  Report cards?
• Midway through the year, the calm competency of the Conservative economic stewardship became clear.  The public has no appetite for an election.  Michael Ignatieff nevertheless stuck to the script, and threatened an election unless the Conservatives address four issues.  Stephen Harper says no, and offers Michael Ignatieff a committee instead on just one of those issues.  Within hours of threatening an election, Michael Ignatieff took the committee.  Media pundits guffawed.
• It is now the fall.  The Conservatives are governing amidst an accelerating economic recovery.  The polls show the Conservatives leading the Liberals, and the Stephen Harper trouncing Michael Ignatieff on all leadership measures.  Public satisfaction with the Tories translates into a furious rejection at the idea of holding an election.  Michael Ignatieff nevertheless sticks to the script, and calls for an election, despite the fact that the script called for the Liberals to be in a position to win this election.  The other opposition parties, cowed at the strength of Harper's Conservatives, agree to avoid an election, hoping that Michael Ignatieff's continued incompetence will translate into stronger poll numbers over time.  Media pundits write about Liberal incompetence and desperation.

Probation is over.  Indeed, at onprobation.ca, the title bar image now has "Revoked" stamped over the word "Probation".   It's like Michael Ignatieff is following the script, come hell or high water.  That's what makes it so laughable. 

What choice did he have?  He was standing in front of his caucus in August, the narrative in shambles.  But if he abandoned his narrative, it would have been an admission of months of wasted time and party money.

So now what?  If probation is over, why aren't we having an election?  The Liberals say they have withdrawn support of the government by revoking their probation, but without bringing the NDP and the Bloc Quebecois onside.   Now the Liberals are isolated, being seen as the party that reflexively opposes while the Conservatives, the NDP, and the Bloc Quebecois do the difficult work of keeping a minority government running. 

Does Michael Ignatieff have a Plan B?  Maybe not.  Consider the probation metaphor.  The ex-con enjoys his freedom of action only at the pleasure of the probation officer.  At no point did Stephen Harper play this role of the ex-con.  At no point did Michael Ignatieff even remotely resemble a probation officer.  The narrative never came together, and it has reached its end point, such as it is.

Probation has been revoked.  And Stephen Harper is still the prime minister.

The Liberals need to turn the page and start a new narrative.  Might I suggest George of the Jungle?  Michael Ignatieff slamming into one tree after the next.  It isn't a proud narrative that portrays Michael Ignatieff as someone in a position of strength, as the probation narrative did, but it had the virtue of being far more accurate.